Machine Learning and Prediction of Infectious Diseases: A Systematic Review

The aim of the study is to show whether it is possible to predict infectious disease outbreaks early, by using machine learning. This study was carried out following the guidelines of the Cochrane Collaboration and the meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology and the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The suitable bibliography on PubMed/Medline and Scopus was searched by combining text, words, and titles on medical topics. At the end of the search, this systematic review contained 75 records. The studies analyzed in this systematic review demonstrate that it is possible to predict the incidence and trends of some infectious diseases;by combining several techniques and types of machine learning, it is possible to obtain accurate and plausible results. © 2023 by the authors.

Predictive comorbidities of hospital admission in 1,571 SARS- CoV-2 positive patients: analysis of administrative data from an Italian Local Health Autority.

Purpose: Globally, age and some comorbidities have been associ-ated with the risk of more severe outcomes of COVID-19. The purpose of this research is to calculate the hospitalization rate of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients in an Italian Local health Authority (LHA) and to examine whether medical comorbidities encoded through pharmaceutical administrative data are predictors of hospital admission in patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 naso-pharyngeal swab. Methods: This retrospective observational study was conducted in a LHA of Pescara. Comorbidities were coded through the consumption of drugs, using the WHO's Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification System. The admission was ascertained by checking the hospital discharge records where generated. Results: During the study period, 1571 patients were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 oro-and-nasopharyngeal swab. Multivariable logistic analisys showed as predictors of admission an age ≥65 in the total sample (aOR 10.91; 95%CI 6.86-17.36) as well as in the male (aOR 12.64;95%CI 6.42-24.87) and female. (aOR 9.27; 95%CI 4.87-17.66) in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. Comorbidities assiociated with admission were (GERD) in overall (AdjOR 1.58; 95% CI 1.06-2.34) and male (AdjOR 2.30; 95%CI 1.12-4.72) samples and anticoagulants drugs use in male (AdjOR 3.90; 95% 1.11-13.65) sample, the presence of congestive heart failure (CHF) in female (AdjOR 0.47;95%CI 0.27-0.83) sample results as protective factor. Conclusion: In conclusion, increasing age, male gender and PPI use are positively associated while female gender and CHF-related drug use are negatively associated with hospitalization in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients.

Pharmacists' mental health during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy.

OBJECTIVE: The year 2020 was characterized by the outbreak of a new pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2. To face the pandemic, many countries worldwide imposed general lockdowns, closing all non-essential businesses. As primary care services, pharmacies had to remain open, thus putting pharmacy staff at significant risk of viral infection and overwork. This study aimed to assess the mental health of Italian Pharmacists, considering demographic and occupational characteristics, lifestyle, and habits, during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and the subsequent lockdown period (March-May 2020). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A web-based survey was created using Google® Forms to collect data from March 30, 2020, to June 1, 2020. The questionnaire consisted of three sections investigating: (1) demographic and occupational variables, (2) lifestyle and habits variables, (3) psychological distress and perceived well-being. RESULTS: A total of 401 participants completed the questionnaire. Older workers and those with more work experience reported more psychological stress. Older and female workers, who felt lonely at home and reported psychological stress, perceived poor well-being. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that the Sars-CoV-2 outbreak and subsequent lockdown rules affected pharmacists' mental health and that it is important to put in place preventive measures against the occurrence of mental disorders among them.

The impact of leadership on perceived work-related stress in healthcare facilities organisations

Purpose Employees in the private, public, and third sectors have experienced an increase in stress over the years. Amongst the sectors, people working in hospitals and other healthcare facilities were put under severe stress during the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, the World Health Organisation has clearly stated that defending people's mental health at this particular time of restless pandemic growth is an absolute necessity. The purpose of this article is to assess the perceived work-related stress (WRS) of healthcare workers (HCWs) as a result of the spread of COVID-19, as well as how a leadership role can help to reduce WRS. Design/methodology/approach Based on a multiple case study approach applied to two Italian health-care facilities, the questionnaire results were subjected to a regression analysis. Findings The results show an association in HCWs between the perception of supportive leadership and the perception of negative psychosocial risks whose exposure can lead to manifestation of WRS during COVID-19 pandemic. Originality/value The study addresses the role that the perception of supportive leadership can play in reducing exposure to occupational psychosocial risks in a sample of healthcare professionals.

Differences in COVID-19 mortality between pandemic phases in a southern Italian region

Background Overall mortality is a relevant indicator of the population burden during COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting the overload and preparedness of the healthcare system. This study aimed to analyse the distribution of deaths in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients between pandemic phases and to evaluate the characteristics of COVID-19 patients deceased during the year. Methods Data on confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected from the recording system of the Department of Prevention of the Local Health Authority of Abruzzo Region, Italy. The course of the epidemic was stratified in 4 phases: the first wave (March-May 2020), the low incidence phase (June-September 2020), the second wave (October 2020-December 2021), and the variants spread phase in our region (January-March 2021). Results From March 2020 to March 2021 we registered 17,082 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, of these patients 571 (3.35%) had a fatal outcome. The mortality was the highest during the first ‘peak' phase, interesting the 14.20% of the notified cases, and the lowest during the last phase (2.50%). Mortality due to COVID-19 mainly affected men (54.99%) and geriatric patients (median age: 84;IQR: 75-90). Women dying for SARS-CoV-2 infection had a more advanced median age (87;IQR: 79-92) than men (81;IQR: 73-87). The lowest median age was registered in patients deceased during the low incidence phase (75.5;IQR: 71-82). The median time span, in days, from a SARS-CoV-2 positive test to death was significant lower in the phase 1 (days:10;IQR:4-20) then in phase 4 (days:14;IQR:8-22) (p < 0.001). Conclusions Our results showed that mortality markedly decreased during the COVID-19 epidemic, and this could be likely related to an improved organisation and delivery of care, in addition to a better knowledge of disease treatment. Elderly patients were more likely to progress toward fatal outcome. The healthcare systems should pay special attention to them in order to effectively manage possible future pandemics. Key messages The COVID-19 mortality reduction highlights an improvement of health care;the elderly remains at major risk of death. Providing pandemic prevention and care models focused also on vulnerable groups is a major public health challenge.

Attitudes towards COVID-19 preventive measures: an Italian cross-sectional study

Background The outbreak of COVID-19 was declared Public Health Emergency of International Concern on the January 2020. During an infectious disease outbreak, non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to delay an epidemic peak and to flatten the epidemic curve, in order to wait for vaccine development. Perception or beliefs may be essential in determining adherence to official recommendations. The aim of this study was to assess whether perceptions of COVID-19 and awareness of preventive strategies effectiveness were associated to behavioural changes. Methods Web-based survey was performed in Italy between the 9 and the 15 March 2020. The survey contained six sections: subject's demographics, subject's behaviours during the latest three weeks, subject's behaviours during the latest 24 hours, perceived efficacy of behaviours, awareness raised by the government-led prevention campaign for COVID-19 and co-occurring anxiety. Results 1912 participants were enrolled in the study. 48.1% of the participants (n = 919) reported to perform at least 7 preventive behaviours. Most people reported a change in the frequency of their hand-washing (94.7%), an increment in the frequency of surface cleaning and disinfecting (58.9%), and a reduction in the use of public transport (92.5%). Behavioural changes were related to an increase in the anxiety level (OR 1.47;95%CI 1.16-1.87). After adjusting for personal characteristics and anxiety, an association resulted between clear perception of COVID-19 high infectiousness (OR 1.25;95%CI 1.00-1.59) and of its severe consequences (OR 1.29;95%CI 1.05-1.59), clearness of communication about the virus (OR 1.41;95%CI 1.17-1.71), and increased likelihood of performing the recommended behavioural changes. Conclusions To better protect people against future epidemics, health-promotion efforts should be aimed at increasing the level of awareness towards infectious diseases and at implementing and encouraging non-pharmaceutical interventions. Key messages Clear perception of COVID-19 high infectiousness and of its severe consequences are associated with an increased likelihood of performing the recommended behavioural changes. Health promotion strategies should be a critical part of infection prevention and control program.

The Indirect Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular Diseases in Abruzzo

Background In 2020 the Covid-19 pandemic influenced the organization of all health systems, imposing new rules for accessing the hospitals and delaying or reducing the ability to cope with all the population needs. In addition, people with life-threatening conditions deferred care for their fear of contagion. The study aimed to evaluate the indirect impact of Covid-19 on hospitalization rates for cardiovascular diseases in 2020 in Abruzzo. Methods Data were obtained from the hospital discharge records of all Abruzzo. We analyzed all the hospitalizations included in Major Diagnostic Categories 5 (cardiovascular diseases). First, we distinguished both between public or private hospitalizations and ordinary or day-hospital admissions. Second, we compared the first nine months of 2020 with a mean of the same months in the two previous years. Finally, we calculated the variable percentage. Results A huge reduction in hospitalization in MCD 5 contest was observed in each subgroup. Specifically, ordinary regimen had a peak of -56,4% in April. Day-hospital admissions were the most affected by Covid-19 with a peak of -84% in April. The largest reduction in hospitalizations occurred in private hospitals, in both ordinary (-81% in April) and DH admissions (-100% in April). A rebound in admissions was reported only for ordinary private regime between June and September, with a peak of + 24% in August. Conclusions Covid-19 had a severe impact on Abruzzo hospitalizations. The medical conditions that we examined needed effective hospital treatment to avoid adverse outcomes or death. Subsequently, fewer hospitalizations for such medical conditions were almost certainly associated with patient harm. Despite the pandemic, health system leaders should manage to provide subjects with hospital care, when necessary. Key messages Covid-19 had a significant indirect impact on the rate of hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease in Abruzzo. Despite the pandemic, regional health systems should manage to provide effective hospital care for patients with cardiovascular conditions that require hospitalization.

Reduction in Neurological Disease Hospitalization Rate During Covid-19 Pandemic in Abruzzo

Background As a consequence of the Covid-19 outbreak, Italy has adopted unprecedented preventive measures such as large-scale application of social isolation and hospital rearrangements. These measures have led to difficulty in managing diseases and hospitalizations, particularly acute and severe conditions such as neurological morbidities. The aim of the present analysis is to investigate the change in hospital admissions for neurological diseases over the first nine months of 2020 in Abruzzo region. Methods Data were obtained from the Hospital Discharge Records of all Abruzzo. We analyzed all the hospitalizations included in Major Diagnostic Categories 1 (neurological diseases). First, we distinguished both between public or private hospitalizations and ordinary or day-hospital admissions. Second, we compared the first nine months of 2020 with a mean of the same months in the two previous years. Finally, we calculated the variable percentage. Results A huge reduction in MCD 1 series hospitalizations was observed in each subgroup. Specifically, ordinary regimen had a peak of -47,3% in April. Day-hospital admissions were the most affected by Covid-19 with a peak of more than 90% in April both in public and private hospitals. The largest reduction occurred in private hospitals, both in ordinary (-75% in April) and DH admissions (-93,8% in March). Conclusions Despite the severity of the diseases included in MDC 1 (i.e. ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage), a significant decline was detected in hospital admissions in Abruzzo. Subsequently, a high number of subjects might have not received the necessary health assistance leading to an increase in mortality and morbidity for these severe pathologies. Additionally, patients might have avoided seeking hospital care in response to the fear of contagion triggered either by media or as a result of the stay-at-home government recommendations. Key messages An alarming reduction in all types of hospitalizations for neurological diseases occurred over the first months of pandemic in Abruzzo. Greater management efforts are needed to reduce the morbidity and mortality rates associated with the reduced hospital admissions during the pandemic.

Comparison of admissions for Acute Coronary Syndrome between 2020 and two control periods in Abruzzo

Background The coronavirus epidemic has put unprecedented strain on health services, threatening hospital capacity in facing such a high number of Covid-19 patients in need of treatment. The aim of this study is to compare the hospitalization rate for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the first nine months of 2020 with the same period of 2018 and 2019. Methods This is a retrospective study of hospital discharge records. The pathologies of interest were coded as follows: all the hospitalizations with main discharge diagnosis as ICD-9-CM 410.xx, 411.xx, 413.xx for Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS);410.xx was used in all diagnoses except in codes 410.7x or 410.9x for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI);410.7x was used in all diagnoses except 410.9.x for acute non-STEMI. Hospitalization rate ratios (HRR) comparing the study period with each of the control periods were calculated using Poisson regression. Results During the study period there was a statistically significant decrease in hospitalizations for ACS both vs 2018 (HRR 0.80;95%CI 0.80-0.81;p < 0.001) and vs 2019 (HRR 0.85;95%CI 0.84-0.86;p < 0.001). A decrease also affected STEMI vs 2018 (HRR 0.91;95%CI 0.90-0.92;p < 0.001) and vs 2019 (HRR 0.87;95%CI 0.86-0.88;p < 0.001) and NSTEMI vs 2018 (HRR 0.76;95%CI 0.75-0.77;p < 0.001) and vs 2019 (HRR 0.79;95%CI 0.78-0.80;p < 0.001). Conclusions This report shows a significant decrease in ACS-related hospitalization rates across the Region during the study period. General out-of-hospital mortality need to be further investigated, as to focus on patients died of ACS without receiving adequate assistance from the emergency network. Key messages Hospitalizations for acute coronary syndromes, STEMI and NSTEMI underwent a statistically significant decrease. During the pandemic, some health needs related to fatal emergencies were not met by the health services.

Telework and its effects on mental health during the COVID-19 lockdown.

OBJECTIVE: During the Covid-19 pandemic, many governments promoted the adoption and development of telework to reduce some of the consequences of the current health crisis on the economy and favor social distancing. The aim of this web-based cross-sectional study was to assess the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on job organization, exploring the effects of lockdown measures on the psychological distress and perceived well-being of workers experiencing telework. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A web-based cross-sectional survey has been used to collect data. The participants answered the questionnaire from April 1 to April 30, 2020. The questionnaire consisted of three sections, which investigated: 1) demographic and occupational variables, 2) lifestyle and habits variables, 3) psychological distress and perceived well-being. The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) has been used to evaluate psychological distress and the 5-item World Health Organization Well-Being Index (WHO-5) to explore subjective well-being. RESULTS: Psychological distress was associated with educational level, with habits, and with reporting poor well-being. Poor well-being was associated with a higher job demand during pandemic, lifestyle and habits variables, and psychological distress. CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first studies exploring the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown measures on the perceived well-being and psychological distress of workers experiencing telework. It is mandatory to pay more and more attention to the mental health of teleworkers, considering the increasing diffusion and adoption of this type of work organization.

The impact of COVID-19 on doctors' well-being: results of a web survey during the lockdown in Italy.

OBJECTIVE: On March 12, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of a new Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), to be a pandemic. From the beginning, Italy (in particular the Northern regions) was the first large European country to be hit and one of the most affected countries worldwide. This had a significant impact on the workload and psychological health of health workers. The aim of this web-based cross-sectional study is to assess the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on Italian doctors' well-being and psychological distress, in respect of demographic and occupational characteristics, lifestyle and habits during the lockdown period. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a web-based cross-sectional survey based on Google® Forms to collect data. The participation was available during the lockdown period that started in Italy on March 9, 2020 and it was voluntary and anonymous. The questionnaire explored demographic and occupational variables, lifestyle and habits during the lockdown, perceived well-being and psychological distress. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted. RESULTS: Our study reported the very alarming psychological conditions of Italian doctors, especially among those who worked in the most affected regions, where a level of psychological distress of 93.8% and poor well-being of 58.9% were registered. These percentages were even higher in the case of female hospital workers with low job seniority, and those caring for COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reported a significant psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Italian doctors, particularly among those working in the most affected regions of the country. Further studies are necessary to better understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on doctors' well-being and mental health over time, in order to implement effective prevention measures.